For more than a decade, Austin was the destination. It topped growth charts, pulled in tech talent from both coasts, and became shorthand for the kind of city young professionals wanted to live in. So it surprises a lot of people to learn that the story has shifted.
As of 2026, more Americans are leaving Austin for other parts of the country than are arriving from them — domestic migration has actually turned negative in some recent quarters, even though international arrivals and new births keep the overall population growing.
That doesn’t mean Austin is in decline. It still ranked as the third most popular U.S. metro for movers in 2025, according to U-Haul’s annual report, behind only Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston. But the people leaving are telling a consistent story, and it’s worth understanding what’s driving them out.
The cost of living finally caught up
The single biggest reason people give for leaving is money. Austin’s housing market exploded during the boom years, and while prices have softened from their 2022 peak, they’re still high by Texas standards. The median home price sat around $530,000 to $577,000 in 2025 — a few percentage points above the national average and far above what you’d pay in San Antonio, Waco, or the smaller cities surrounding Austin.
Then there are property taxes. Texas has no state income tax, so local governments lean heavily on property taxes to fund schools and services. Combined effective rates inside Austin city limits typically run somewhere between 1.8% and 2.07% of assessed value, and because Austin home appraisals are so high, the actual dollar amounts sting.
The typical homeowner inside the city limits pays roughly $8,000 to $10,000 a year in property taxes on a median-priced home. The City of Austin’s portion alone rose nearly 10% for the 2025-26 fiscal year.
For renters, a one-bedroom apartment averages somewhere around $1,400 to $1,700 a month. Manageable for a dual-income tech household — much harder for a teacher, a nurse, or a service worker. And that’s the quiet engine behind the slowdown: as the city gets more expensive, it attracts higher earners, which pushes costs up further, which prices out the middle. It’s a cycle, and it’s reshaping who can afford to stay.
Traffic and the never-ending I-35 project
Cost gets the headlines, but ask people who’ve left and traffic comes up almost as often. Austin consistently ranks among the most congested metro areas in Texas, and the I-35 corridor through downtown has been under construction for years with no clean end in sight. Commutes that used to take 20 minutes now routinely stretch to 45 or more. When a daily annoyance becomes a daily grind, it changes how people feel about a place — and for families weighing a move, it tips the scale.
Where Austin’s leavers are actually going
Most people aren’t fleeing Texas. They’re chasing the same lifestyle for less money, often without leaving the region. The most common destinations are nearby:
- Texas suburbs and satellite cities — Round Rock, Pflugerville, Cedar Park, and especially Georgetown are absorbing demand that used to flow straight into Travis County. People want access to Austin jobs without Austin-level rent.
- Smaller Texas metros — San Antonio, San Marcos, New Braunfels, and Waco offer noticeably lower costs while keeping people within driving distance of family and work.
- Out-of-state “Austin alternatives” — Cities like Raleigh, North Carolina; Huntsville, Alabama; and Boise, Idaho have pulled former Austinites who want a similar vibe — good jobs, decent weather, a creative streak — at a lower price point.
The pattern is telling. This isn’t disillusionment with Texas or with city living. It’s a search for the version of Austin that existed before the prices climbed.
Is now a good time to make the move?
If you’re an Austin homeowner thinking about selling, the market has cooled in your favor compared to the frenzy of a few years ago. Inventory is up, prices have softened, and buyers have more negotiating room than they’ve had in years. Homes still sell relatively quickly — often within about 50 days — but the days of waiving inspections and bidding $50,000 over asking have largely passed.
There’s also modest relief on the tax front. Texas voters approved Proposition 13 in November 2025, raising the school district homestead exemption from $100,000 to $140,000 for the 2026 tax year, which trims a few hundred dollars off the typical annual bill. It won’t reverse the broader affordability squeeze, but it’s a small point in homeowners’ favor.
Whichever direction you’re heading — a quieter suburb like Georgetown, a cheaper metro down I-35, or a fresh start in another state entirely — the logistics of the move itself are where stress tends to pile up. Working with experienced movers in Austin who know the local neighborhoods, building access rules, and the realities of summer relocations can take a lot of the friction out of the process, especially during the busy May-through-September stretch when demand peaks and good dates fill up fast.
The bottom line
Austin isn’t emptying out. It’s recalibrating. The frenzied growth of 2020 to 2022 has given way to something steadier, and the people leaving are mostly doing the math: they love the idea of Austin but can’t justify the cost, the taxes, or the traffic anymore. For some, the answer is a suburb 30 minutes north. For others, it’s a different state. Either way, the decision usually comes down to the same thing it always has — finding the place where your life and your budget actually fit.
If you’re weighing a move of your own, it’s worth talking to a local real estate professional about whether selling, staying, or relocating makes the most financial sense for your situation before you commit either way.
